Preseason Rankings
Atlantic Sun
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
87 Liberty 48.7%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 6 13 - 3 +6.0      +2.7 97 +3.3 86 58.7 350 0.0 1 0.0 1
155 North Florida 17.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 5 +0.3      +2.6 102 -2.2 235 77.7 21 0.0 1 0.0 1
175 NJIT 13.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 6 -0.9      -1.0 206 +0.1 160 66.8 232 0.0 1 0.0 1
177 Lipscomb 12.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 10 - 6 -1.2      -0.4 193 -0.9 191 80.5 13 0.0 1 0.0 1
257 Florida Gulf Coast 4.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 8 -5.3      -3.9 287 -1.4 206 70.5 130 0.0 1 0.0 1
298 Jacksonville 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 6 - 10 -7.9      -4.2 295 -3.7 281 76.1 32 0.0 1 0.0 1
313 North Alabama 1.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 18 6 - 10 -9.0      -5.8 322 -3.2 264 70.2 138 0.0 1 0.0 1
320 Kennesaw St. 1.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 11 -10.0      -5.0 311 -5.0 310 70.0 140 0.0 1 0.0 1
336 Stetson 0.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 22 4 - 12 -12.1      -5.1 313 -7.0 344 72.4 88 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Liberty 1.7 62.4 20.3 9.6 4.5 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
North Florida 3.0 19.9 25.8 20.8 14.4 8.7 5.4 3.1 1.4 0.5
NJIT 3.4 15.2 21.4 20.6 16.6 11.4 7.4 4.2 2.3 1.0
Lipscomb 3.5 13.4 21.0 20.3 17.3 12.3 7.9 4.5 2.4 1.0
Florida Gulf Coast 5.0 3.9 8.7 13.1 16.3 17.8 15.4 12.1 8.1 4.6
Jacksonville 5.9 1.7 4.3 7.2 10.7 15.6 17.7 17.9 14.8 10.0
North Alabama 6.3 1.1 3.1 5.9 9.2 13.7 16.6 18.1 18.2 14.1
Kennesaw St. 6.6 0.6 2.4 4.4 7.7 11.9 15.2 18.6 20.8 18.3
Stetson 7.3 0.3 1.1 2.2 4.4 7.9 12.4 16.9 23.4 31.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Liberty 13 - 3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.5 5.8 9.5 13.4 17.3 19.4 17.1 10.7
North Florida 11 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 3.7 6.1 8.3 11.4 13.4 15.3 13.5 11.3 8.1 3.7 1.2
NJIT 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.2 5.6 7.7 10.3 12.9 13.9 13.7 11.5 9.2 5.8 2.4 0.6
Lipscomb 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.7 5.8 8.3 11.3 12.6 14.2 13.3 11.6 8.6 4.8 2.2 0.5
Florida Gulf Coast 8 - 8 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.8 7.1 10.0 12.0 13.3 12.9 12.5 9.6 7.2 4.4 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.1
Jacksonville 6 - 10 0.6 2.4 5.2 8.5 11.7 13.9 13.9 12.7 10.9 7.8 5.5 3.6 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
North Alabama 6 - 10 1.1 3.6 7.1 11.0 13.0 13.9 13.7 11.4 9.5 6.8 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Kennesaw St. 5 - 11 1.7 5.0 8.9 13.2 14.5 14.1 12.1 11.0 8.1 5.0 3.3 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Stetson 4 - 12 4.1 9.4 13.5 16.0 15.6 13.2 10.6 7.4 4.7 2.7 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 62.4% 50.2 10.4 1.6 0.2 0.0
North Florida 19.9% 12.6 5.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
NJIT 15.2% 9.2 4.8 1.0 0.2 0.0
Lipscomb 13.4% 7.9 4.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 3.9% 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville 1.7% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Alabama 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St. 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Stetson 0.3% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 48.7% 48.1% 0.6% 14   0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 2.6 9.4 13.5 10.8 6.3 2.4 51.3 1.2%
North Florida 17.2% 17.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.7 3.1 4.2 4.5 3.1 82.8 0.2%
NJIT 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 3.1 3.8 3.5 86.8 0.1%
Lipscomb 12.4% 12.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 2.8 3.7 2.8 87.6 0.1%
Florida Gulf Coast 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.0 95.6 0.0%
Jacksonville 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 98.0 0.0%
North Alabama 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 98.5 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 99.0 0.0%
Stetson 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 48.7% 1.2% 48.2% 10.7% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
North Florida 17.2% 1.4% 16.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJIT 13.2% 1.9% 12.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 12.4% 1.4% 11.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 4.4% 1.2% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 2.0% 0.9% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 1.5% 0.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 1.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.2 0.8
1st Round 95.9% 1.0 4.1 95.3 0.6
2nd Round 14.8% 0.1 85.2 14.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 4.4% 0.0 95.6 4.4
Elite Eight 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0